Kingston, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

263
FXUS61 KBOX 041045
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers may impact the south coast early this morning
along a cold front, otherwise a drying and clearing trend today
from north to south with mild temperatures. Turning unsettled
this weekend with a chilly rain developing Saturday followed by
showers Sunday as a cold front moves into the region. The cold
front stalls south of New England Sunday night with a wave of
low pressure tracking along the front bringing more rain and
cool temperatures Sunday night into Monday, possibly changing to
snow over the higher elevations. Below normal temperatures will
persist for the rest of next week, with unsettled conditions
Tuesday and perhaps late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM update...

Bulk of showers will pass south of the coast through mid
morning, with a few showers possibly impacting the Islands and
perhaps a sprinkle along the immediate south coast.

Previous discussion...

Key Messages:

* A few showers possible along the south coast this morning,
  otherwise clearing trend from N to S this afternoon

* Mild day with highs in the 60s

Numerous showers and some elevated convection is moving E across
southern PA along a cold front which extends to the SNE coast. The
elevated instability axis will remain south of New Eng, but the
northern extent of the deep moisture and elevated PWAT axis will be
near the south coast along the stalled frontal boundary. As a result
a few showers may move along the south coast through about mid
morning before the front pushes further south. Thereafter, much
drier air will advect south across the region today with notable
drop in PWATs. However, we will have lots of mid-high clouds to
contend with through the morning before sunshine increases from
north to south in the afternoon. It will be a mild day as 925 mb
temps around 8-9C which supports highs in the mid 60s for most
locations. Soundings show a shallow boundary layer but enough wind
for somewhat breezy conditions with NW gusts to 20-25 mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Rain develops from W to E Sat morning through the afternoon
  with chilly temperatures

Tonight...

High pres builds to the north with light northerly wind. High
clouds don`t completely clear out and will be increasing and
thickening through the night ahead of an approaching warm front.
This will limit radiational cooling with lows mid 30s to lower
40s. Dry weather expected through the night as wedge of low
level dry air persists through 12z.

Saturday...

The high pres moves east of the Maritimes as a warm front
approaches from the SW. Increasing moisture and forcing develops
as modest 850 mb jet overruns the frontal boundary with PWATs
increasing to over 1". Will have some low level dry air to
overcome in the morning, but expect rain will be overspreading
the region from west to east from mid-late morning through the
afternoon. 925 mb temps fall to near 0C as the precip moves in
so a chilly day. Highs will reach the 40s before the rain, with
falling temps after the rain develops. May even see some ice
pellets mix in with the rain in northern MA where wet bulb
cooling drops low level temps below 0C in the afternoon. Temps
expected to fall into the 30s here.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Occasional showers Saturday night into Monday morning with
  some snow possible higher elevations late Sun night into early
  Mon

* Cooler and unsettled conditions persist into early next week

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...

A broad high pressure looks to move from Quebec into Atlantic
Canada by Saturday night, with anticyclonic flow bringing yet
another backdoor cold front. Cooler marine air will be swept
over southern New England as result of the northeast to east
flow. As the high continues to move east and over the waters, a
low pressure systems builds in over the mid-Atlantic region. The
associated warm front lifts north allowing for southwesterly
flow to dominate, advecting warmer and more moist air into
southern New England by Sunday. Biggest challenge for Sunday
continues to be exact placement of the warm sector as the
trailing cold front is not too far removed. Model guidance still
suggests the southern coastline will be in the warm sector;
however, NBM probs are only about 40 percent that anywhere in
the CWA will reach 60F Sunday afternoon. The 10th and 90th
percentile of the NBM still has a spread of almost 20 degrees
for nearly the entire region, the exception being Cape Cod and
the Islands where the spread is much less, less than 7 degrees.

As for precipitation this weekend, PWATs range between 1.3" and
1.5" which is 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Rain
arrives Saturday from west to east, with occasional continuing
through Sunday. Still cannot rule out rumbles of thunder,
especially along the southern shores. SREF has fairly low
probabilities of MUCAPE exceeding 250J/kg at 30% across
southwestern New England. As the cold front exits Sunday night
into early Monday morning, enough cold air advects in behind the
front and may change the rain to a sleet/snow mix in the higher
terrain of northern and western Massachusetts.

Monday though Thursday...

Briefly drier conditions later on Monday, though the next
system is not too far off as a low-pressure system moves into
northern New England from the Great Lakes region for Tuesday.
The exact positioning is uncertain, but guidance has begun to
narrow in on the track following the New York-Ontario border.
Ensemble guidance is suggesting a dry system, with PWATs at 30
to 40 percent of normal, but cold air aloft and marginal surface
temperatures in the higher elevations may lead to a snow/rain
mix, with spotty rain showers in the lower elevations. A quick
break on Wednesday is followed by another quick moving system
late next week.

As for temperatures... trending slightly below normal with
highs in the 40s, and even cooler across interior southern New
England, in the mid 30s. Lows in the 30s Monday night, followed
by lows in the 20s Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High Confidence.

VFR with gradual clearing from N to S, especially this afternoon.
NW wind 10-20 kt with a few higher gusts possible.

Tonight...High Confidence

VFR. Light N-NE wind.

Saturday...Moderate confidence.

Cigs lowering to MVFR in the afternoon, with rain overspreading
the region from W to E from late morning through the afternoon.
Light E wind becoming SE 10-15 kt.

BOS TAF...High confidence.

BDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA
likely.

Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA,
slight chance SHSN.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts
up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...High confidence.

Lingering 5-6 ft seas over southern waters will drop below 5 ft this
afternoon. NW winds 10-20 kt today becoming NE tonight then veering
to SE during Sat. Winds increase late Sat over southern waters where
some 20+ kt gusts possible. Rain developing Sat afternoon.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain
showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...McMinn
AVIATION...KJC/McMinn
MARINE...KJC/McMinn