Kingston, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

759
FXUS61 KBOX 250640
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
240 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected away from the coast
today, with a few areas reaching to around 80 degrees. Cloud cover
increases tonight. Cooler with widespread rain showers and some
thunderstorms Saturday ahead of our next system. Drier conditions
Sunday, though a spot shower cannot be ruled out with a departing
mid-level low. Will be much cooler and breezy. Dry and warm Monday
and Tuesday. A frontal passage on Wednesday with showers and then
drying out Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Dry and unseasonably warm.

A stalled quasi-linear frontal boundary continues to create a few
returns on radar across SNE early this morning but nothing is making
it to the surface and these will continue to diminish. The main
story for today will be the much above average temperatures as warm
advection continues to push 850 mb temps closer to 10-11C. Even with
more mid and upper level moisture today compared to yesterday which
will lead to a mix of clouds and sun, should see high temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s (even low 80s in the CT valley). The
exception will be along the coasts where sea breezes will keep temps
in the 60s and low 70s. A few spotty showers are possible over far
northern MA in proximity to a lingering frontal boundary, but more
likely that these stay to our north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

Key Messages...

* Increasing clouds early Friday evening, with rains developing
  overnight. Mild with lows in the 50s, perhaps a few areas staying
  above 60 degrees.

* Widespread rainfall expected Saturday.

Cloud cover lowers and thickens Friday evening into the overnight
hours ahead of a northern stream trough moving through the Great
Lakes with a surface frontal system out ahead of it. An
isentropically forced precipitation shield will overspread SNE ahead
of this system, arriving from west to east between 11pm and 5am.
Forcing for ascent will be bolstered by a developing 35-45 kt 850 mb
LLJ acting on a moisture plume with PWATs on the order of 1.5
inches. This is 200+% above normal. The best moisture and the core
of the jet is overhead Saturday morning, so this is when the
steadiest rain is expected with some embedded downpours possible;
dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MUCAPE values of up to 500
J/kg so in addition to some heavier downpours, embedded thunder is
possible. A dry slot moves overhead late morning/afternoon so likely
we`ll see an end to the widespread rain in the middle of the day,
followed by a quick line of showers and thunderstorms in the late
afternoon/evening along and ahead of the cold front as it swings
through. Temperatures ahead of the front will reach into the 60s.
The core of the jet is overhead in the morning, when forecast
soundings indicate a stout inversion should keep the strongest gusts
aloft. So, though it will be breezy everywhere, the stronger gusts
to 30-35 kts should be limited mainly to the Cape and islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Drier conditions Sunday, though a spot shower cannot be ruled out
  with a departing mid-level low. Will be much cooler and breezy.

* Dry and warm Monday and Tuesday. A frontal passage on Wednesday
  with showers and then drying out Thursday.

Saturday Night and Sunday: Few showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue overnight, much of the rain ends before dawn. A mid-level
low moves across New England on Sunday and will promote a few areas
of rain, not a washout by any means, but likely more in the way
of clouds than sunshine... especially eastern-half of
Massachusetts and Rhode Island. As the system moves across the
region will promote CAA and gusty NW winds, nothing that raises
to a level of an advisory, but gusts 25 to 35 MPH are possible.
That will make the day feel even cooler. CAA aloft and mixing to
850mb will result in afternoon temperatures in the low and
middle 50s. Clearing skies Sunday night and breezy conditions
continue, lows fall into the middle 40s.

Monday and Tuesday: Surface high pressure and mid-level ridging will
bring dry and warm conditions to kickoff early next week. No weather
concerns during this timeframe, will have above normal temperatures
as well with daytime highs on Monday in the upper 60s at the coast
and inland highs reach the middle 70s. Should trend even warmer for
Tuesday with temperatures reaching the upper 70s. Monday night has
the potential to be on the cooler side due to radiational cooling so
lows are in the upper 30s to low 40s across interior southern New
England and mid-40s at the coastal plain. Tuesday night is mild in
the upper 50s to 60F degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday:

The next shot at precipitation comes on Wednesday with the
passage of a cold front, with perhaps thunder. If the frontal
passage is later in the day, should have a good chance of having
highs return to the upper 70s. Drying out on Thursday with
brief high pressure returning and cooler temperatures, albeit
seasonable, in the mid-60s.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

VFR. Winds become S around 10 kt, with seabreezes at BOS
developing early (12-14z). There may still be some smoke/haze
around Southern New England in the morning hours on Friday.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

Generally VFR through late evening, though categories
deteriorate to MVFR-LIFR with steady rain developing towards
daybreak.

Saturday: Moderate confidence.

IFR at all terminals through 16Z, slowly improving to MVFR and
VFR from west to east through the afternoon and evening as
widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms come to an end. A
final line of showers and storms is possible in the evening but
confidence on details is low.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR.

Seabreezes likely to develop early on Fri. Possible haze/smoke
tonight into early Fri, but we don`t expect visbys to be
reduced.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR with south winds around 10 kt. Possible haze/smoke tonight
into early Fri, but we don`t expect visbys to be reduced.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with areas
of gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tranquil boating conditions for mariners through today, with
southerly winds around 10-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Dry weather
prevails.

SW winds then increase this evening to around 20 kt, with seas
rising to around 4 ft. SCA conditions develop Saturday with rain and
reduced visibilities.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ231>237-250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...BW/Dooley